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Bluejays set sights on Purple Aces in MVC actionNCAA Basketball Betting Lines02/07/2012 - Evansville, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Knocked down a few of pegs in the latest top-25 poll, the Creighton Bluejays now head to Evansville ranked as the 17th- best team in the nation as they clash with the Purple Aces in Missouri Valley Conference action tonight at the Ford Center. Since losing to Missouri State in the conference opener back on December 28, the Bluejays had put together a sizeable 11-game win streak which was one of the longest in Division I, but that all came crashing down over the weekend. On Saturday afternoon, Creighton was stumped by Northern Iowa on the road, 65-62, which means the Jays are now 11-2 in MVC play and that has them tied with Wichita State at the top of the league standings entering the week. As for the Purple Aces, in a span of just three days the team went to the extremes and have now lost three of their last four outings. Six days ago, the squad leveled Bradley on the road by a score of 92-62, but then on Saturday Evansville was halted by Southern Illinois in a 53-52 final and that has the team now staring at a 6-7 conference record, which has them tied with Northern Iowa and Drake for fifth place at the moment. The Jays are comfortably ahead in the all-time series with Evansville, posting 25 wins in 34 opportunities. The Aces have certainly played better in their own building over the years with seven victories, but still Creighton has won the last three on the road. Overall, the Bluejays have taken six in a row, including a 75-69 final in the most recent matchup last season. Aside from a single 60-56 win for Evansville at home back in 2008, the series has been dominated by the Jays (12-1) since 2005. The teams are set to meet on Creighton's home floor two weeks from now to complete the season series. Doug McDermott put together a solid double-double for the Bluejays with 18 points and 12 rebounds, yet he didn't lead his own team in either category exclusively and that should have been reason enough to believe it wasn't Creighton's day on Saturday. Matching McDermott on the glass was Gregory Echenique, and surpassing him in the scoring department was Antoine Young who dropped in 23 points, shooting 9-of-21 from the floor, as the group made good on 42.1 percent from the field and just 5-of-16 behind the three-point line. McDermott, one of the top scorers in the country (23.4 ppg) who is widely considered a candidate for player of the year honors on a national scale, is one of the hardest players to cover for a defense because he is equally as dangerous in the paint with his 8.4 rpg as he is out on the perimeter with a staggering 51.3 percent shooting from three-point range. Because of his efforts, the Jays as a whole are making good on 44.8 percent beyond the arc as they net an average of 81.0 ppg. Over the course of just a few days, the Purple Aces had their scoring output nearly cut in half as they fell to SIU in Carbondale, shooting just 18-of-44 from the floor which means they finished with just two more made baskets than they had turnovers. Colt Ryan posted 13 points and Kenny Harris another 10 for the Aces, the former accounting for two of the unit's four three-point baskets. Ryan has been the leading scorer for the team in each of the last three games and five of the last six contests, his 20.8 ppg making him one of the top overall performers in the MVC this season. Not only does Ryan connect at 43.2 percent behind the three-point line, he is also one of the team leaders with 71 assists and 4.5 rpg, doing everything he can to make Evansville successful. Unfortunately, with the defense giving up 72.3 ppg and the offense posting 74.1 ppg, Ryan and his teammates don't leave much room for error.
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Sportsbooks to bet on footballRecently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it. He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games. "Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote. He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games. Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk. Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible. Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines. Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy. With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season. Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas). And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.) The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors. While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger. Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under. One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it. Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami. What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5. That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well. MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple. "The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money. "At the end of the day, we liked the home team." So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams. In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish. MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover. The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing. Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed. MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash. To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Betting FootballNFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL? I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said. There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans. Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal. For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though. A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup. The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games. Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff. So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action. Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns. “I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said. Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season. “Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said. It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties. Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples. The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left. “The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits. “These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.” Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough. The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday. “Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.” Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach? “It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.” Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines. |
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