08/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After two of the Atlanta Braves' young guns led the way in a one-sided victory on Sunday, the team will turn to one of its established stars in hopes of getting a three-game road series with the Colorado Rockies off to a good beginning.

Tim Hudson gets the call for Atlanta in tonight's opener and will be out to continue an outstanding string of recent starts. The veteran ace has amassed a 5-0 record along with an astounding 0.82 earned run average over his last six outings, lasting at least seven innings and yielding two runs or less on each of those occasions.

Hudson did see his five-start win streak come to an end in Wednesday's matchup with Washington, but still held the Nationals to two runs over seven innings while not getting a decision. The Braves won that game by a 3-2 count and have prevailed in eight of the All-Star hurler's last 10 trips to the mound.

The 35-year-old is 14-5 over his 25 starts this season, while his 2.15 ERA trails only St. Louis' Adam Wainwright for tops in the National League.

Hudson hasn't fared well in the past at hitter-friendly Coors Field, however. In two previous assignments at the venue, he's been tagged for 13 runs and a whopping 19 hits in just nine innings while losing both times. Overall against the Rockies, he's 3-2 with a 4.65 over five starts.

Atlanta may not have to worry about Hudson struggling if its offense performs like it did on Sunday, when the current NL East leaders banged out 13 hits and swatted four home runs in a 16-5 rout of Chicago that turned out to be the final game for Cubs manager Lou Piniella.

Rookies Jason Heyward and Mike Minor were two of the standouts for the Braves in yesterday's big win. Heyward had the first two-homer game of his big league career and finished 4-for-4 with four RBI and four runs scored, while Minor struck out 12 Chicago hitters in six innings to pick up the win.

Minor did allow an early two-run homer to Aramis Ramirez and three runs over the game's first three innings, but settled down afterward to improve to 2-0 in three starts since being promoted from the minors earlier this month.

Omar Infante also had a big day at the plate for Atlanta, which won for the ninth time in its past 12 games. The valuable utilityman, who's taken over as the regular third baseman following Chipper Jones' season-ending knee injury, went 4-for-6 with a pair of homers and four RBI while scoring four times.

Sunday's effort raised Infante's season average to .349 and extended his hitting streak to 11 games, with the 2010 All-Star batting .447 (21-for-47) with three homers over that tear.

Derrek Lee, acquired by the Braves from the Cubs earlier in the week, knocked in three runs against his former team on Sunday, with Alex Gonzalez contributing a two-RBI single to Atlanta's offensive outburst.

"We were hitting the ball really good today," Braves manager Bobby Cox said afterward. "We had some guys with great games out there today, and whenever you have hitting like that you win more often than not."

With the win, Atlanta remained 2 1/2 games ahead of Philadelphia for first place in the NL East.

Colorado received some impressive pitching from one of its rookies as well on Sunday, with youngster Jhoulys Chacin firing 7 2/3 shutout innings to lead his club to a 1-0 verdict over Arizona at Chase Field.

Chacin (6-9) surrendered just three singles and a walk while striking out nine Diamondbacks before exiting with two outs and a man on in the eighth. Joe Beimel came on to get the final out of the frame and preserve the one-run margin, with Huston Street then tossing a perfect ninth to notch his 10th save and end the Rockies' three-game losing streak.

"If [Chacin] commands his fastball like he did today, you're in trouble," Rockies manager Jim Tracy remarked after the game. "That's how good his stuff is."

Dexter Fowler ended 2-for-3 for Colorado and drove in the game's only run with a single in the top of the eighth. The hit plated Eric Young Jr., who had singled with one out and stole second to move into scoring position.

Jason Hammel will try to make it two wins in a row for Colorado when he opposes Hudson tonight, with the Rockies starter also seeking to improve his already-strong numbers at Coors Field. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA over 11 home starts this season and hasn't lost in Denver since an April 26 setback to the Diamondbacks.

Hammel's last three starts have come on the road and he compiled a 1-1 record with a 4.26 ERA over that stretch. After being reached for four runs in seven innings of a loss to the New York Mets on August 12, he rebounded to limit the Dodgers to two runs and just four hits in a six-inning no-decision this past Wednesday.

The 27-year-old, who's 8-7 with a 4.36 ERA in 22 overall starts this season, also hopes to atone for a poor showing against the Braves back on April 16. In that game Hammel was battered for seven runs and eight hits before being lifted after only 1 2/3 innings, with the result raising his ERA to an ugly 12.66 in three career matchups with Atlanta. He's 0-2 lifetime versus the Braves.

Atlanta won two of three bouts in that early-season series at Turner Field and split a four-game set with the Rockies in Denver last season.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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